Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach. Par Thiago Morello.

11 décembre 2017

Salle D209 (Baillarguet, bâtiment D, 2ème étage) : 14h00 - 15h00

Thiago Morello, ancien thésard brésilien de Green, de passage à Montpellier, devenu professeur à Sao Paulo (UFABC), travaille en particulier sur la question des feux en Amazonie. Il nous présentera un modèle qu'il a récemment finalisé pour simuler les impacts possibles de politique de prévention des feux en Amazonie. Ce modèle a fait l'objet d'une publication récente dans Ecological Economics.

Séminaires scientifiques

Dans le cadre de la rubrique « Séminaires scientifiques », une animation scientifique de l’UPR Forêts et Sociétés aura lieu en salle D209 (Baillarguet, bâtiment D, 2ème étage) le lundi 11 décembre de 14h00 à 15h00.

Titre : Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach

Intervenant : Thiago Morello

Affiliation : Professeur à Sao Paulo (UFABC)

Résumé : Agricultural fires are a double-edged sword that allow for cost-efficient land management in the tropics but also cause accidental fires and emissions of carbon and pollutants. To control fires in Amazon, it is currently unclear whether policy-makers should prioritize command-and-control or incentive-based instruments such as REDD +. Aiming to generate knowledge about the relative merits of the two policy approaches, this paper presents a spatially-explicit agent-based model that simulates the causal effects of four policy instruments on intended and unintended fires. All instruments proved effective in overturning the predominance of highly profitable but risky fire-use and decreasing accidental fires, but none were free from imperfections. The performance of command-and-control proved highly sensitive to the spatial and social reach of enforcement. Side-effects of incentive-based instruments included a disproportionate increase in controlled fires and a reduced acceptance of conservation subsidies, caused by the prohibition of reckless fires, and also indirect deforestation. The instruments that were most effective in reducing deforestation were not the most effective in reducing fires and vice-versa, which suggests that the two goals cannot be achieved with a single policy intervention.

Morello T.F., Parry L., Markusson N., Barlow J. 2017. Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach. Ecological Economics,138: 199-222

Contact : Marie-Gabrielle PIKETTY <marie-gabrielle.piketty@cirad.fr>

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